Joaquim Pereira Lopes
58 years old · Barreiro, Margem Sul (south bank of Tagus)
Former steelworker, now security guard
Persona: Former PS Voter Disillusioned
Joaquim Pereira Lopes
Quick Profile
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Name | Joaquim Pereira Lopes |
| Age | 58 |
| Gender | Male |
| Location | Barreiro, Margem Sul (south bank of Tagus) |
| Occupation | Former steelworker, now security guard |
| Education | 9th grade |
| Housing | Owns apartment (fully paid, public housing purchase in 90s) |
| Family | Married to Lucília (56, retired early from factory), one daughter (32, emigrated to UK) |
| Voter Status | Portuguese citizen - can vote |
Background Narrative
Joaquim spent 25 years at Siderurgia Nacional before it closed. He was union, PS voter since youth, believer in the workers' party. Then came the troika, the factory closures, the early retirement packages that felt like funeral arrangements.
He reinvented himself as a security guard at 45—night shifts at shopping centers, watching the stores he can't afford to shop in. The humiliation of going from skilled steelworker to uniformed doorman still stings. But a job is a job, and at 58, options are limited.
The PS he believed in promised to protect workers. Instead, they promised and promised while factories closed, wages stagnated, and his daughter left for Manchester because Portugal had nothing for her. The corruption scandals—Sócrates, the lithium deals, the golden visas—confirmed what he'd come to suspect: they were all the same.
He hasn't voted Chega. Yet. But he's stopped defending PS to his friends. The party that was supposed to fight for people like him seems more interested in Lisbon elites and European appearances.
Economic Situation
| Aspect | Detail |
|---|---|
| Income level | Low (€850/month security + Lucília's €600 pension) |
| Income source | Security job + spouse's early retirement |
| Financial stress | Moderate (owns home, but tight budget) |
| Housing cost burden | Low (apartment paid off) |
| Economic trajectory | Declining (from skilled work to security) |
Values Profile (Schwartz Framework)
Higher-Order Values
| Dimension | Rating | Expression |
|---|---|---|
| Self-Transcendence | 3 | Was higher; union solidarity; now more cynical |
| Self-Enhancement | 2 | Never sought power; dignity is enough |
| Openness to Change | 2 | Wanted stability; change brought loss |
| Conservation | 4 | Values security, loyalty, working-class identity |
Specific Values (Top 3 priorities)
- Security: Economic stability, protection for workers
- Benevolence: Family, working-class solidarity
- Conformity: Respects rules, did everything right—got nothing
Moral Politics Frame (Lakoff)
Primary frame: Biconceptual (betrayed Nurturant expectations)
Expression: Joaquim believed the state should protect workers, provide security, enable dignity. He feels this promise was broken. Now he's torn—still believes in solidarity but doubts anyone will deliver it.
Information Ecosystem
| Source Type | Specific Sources | Trust Level |
|---|---|---|
| TV | SIC, CMTV, TVI | Medium (declining) |
| Online | Facebook, some news links | Medium |
| Social Media | Facebook (friends, news shares) | Medium |
| None | N/A | |
| Community | Former colleagues, neighbors, wife | High |
Media consumption pattern: TV news during meals. Facebook for staying connected with former colleagues, many of whom share increasingly critical content. Corruption stories attract his attention.
Political Profile
Voting History
| Election | Vote | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Legislative | Abstained | "Couldn't bring myself to vote PS, couldn't vote anything else" |
| 2022 Legislative | PS | "Last time I believed them" |
| 2021 Presidential | Marcelo | "He seemed okay" |
| Historical pattern | Lifelong PS until 2024 |
Political Identity
- Left-Right self-placement: 4/10 (still left, but untethered)
- Party identification: Collapsed—was strong PS, now homeless
- Political engagement: Declining—was union active, now withdrawn
2026 Presidential Inclination
- Current leaning: Undecided (might abstain, might Gouveia e Melo)
- Certainty: Very Undecided
- Key deciding factors: Who seems honest; who isn't corrupt; might not vote
Top Concerns (Ranked)
- Corruption: "They're all stealing. PS, PSD, doesn't matter."
- Worker abandonment: "Nobody fights for workers anymore. Union, parties—all sold out."
- Daughter's emigration: "She couldn't stay. What does that say about Portugal?"
- Cost of living: "Prices go up, wages don't. My pension won't be enough."
- Dignity: "I did everything right. Where's my reward?"
Hopes
For himself:
"I just want to reach retirement without another disaster. Keep my health, see my daughter when she visits, live quietly."
For Portugal:
"I hope someone honest appears. I'm not asking for miracles. Just someone who doesn't lie and steal. Is that too much?"
For his daughter:
"I hope she's happy there. I wish she could be happy here. Maybe things will change and she can come back."
Fears
Personal fears:
"Getting sick before retirement. Losing this job and being unemployable. Dying knowing my daughter chose exile."
Fears for Portugal:
"That nothing will change. That my grandchildren—if I ever have any—will be born abroad because Portugal has nothing for them."
Deepest fear (often unspoken):
"That I wasted my loyalty. That all those years voting, marching, believing—they laughed at me. That I'm a fool."
"In Their Own Voice"
How he'd describe Portugal today:
"A country that abandoned its workers. I spent 25 years making steel for Portugal. Then they closed the factory, sold what they could, and told us to reinvent ourselves. Now I watch shopping centers at night while politicians steal millions. This isn't the Portugal we were promised."
What he'd say to someone who disagrees with him politically:
"I'm not political anymore. I was, for 40 years. What did it get me? A factory closed, a daughter in England, and a uniform that says 'Security' but means 'What happened to your life?'"
His message to politicians:
"Don't come to me asking for votes. You've had my votes. All of you. What did you do with them? Show me results, not promises. I've heard enough promises."
Scenario Response Predictions
| Candidate | Predicted Response | Key Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Ventura | Conflicted | Anti-corruption resonates; but distrusts populism |
| Gouveia e Melo | Moderately Positive | Not a politician; competent; might be honest |
| Marques Mendes | Negative | Same establishment that failed workers |
| Seguro | Negative | PS, part of the problem |
| Catarina Martins | Mixed | Right ideas, but seems disconnected from workers |
| Cotrim Figueiredo | Negative | "For the bosses" |
| António Filipe | Mixed | Old loyalties; but PCP also faded |
Notes for Scenario Development
- Industrial decline and personal downward mobility
- The "betrayed voter" archetype—key swing potential
- Daughter's emigration as emotional anchor
- Former union connections for dialogue scenarios
- Could interact with: former colleagues, PS activists, Chega voters who made the switch
- In "Day in the Future" vignettes: security guard night shifts, empty shopping center philosophizing, video calls with daughter, watching election coverage alone