Research Data: Portugal Presidential Elections 2026

A speculative futures study examining Portugal's January 18, 2026 presidential election through rigorous foresight methodologies.

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This folder contains the foundational research supporting a larger speculative futures project. The research synthesizes publicly available data on Portuguese demographics, political dynamics, and socioeconomic trends to inform scenario development and persona creation.

Research Period: December 2024 – January 2025 Election Date: January 18, 2026

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Research Documents

File	Description	Word Count
01-sociodemographics.md	Population demographics, voter profiles, age/regional distribution, class structure	~3,500
02-candidates.md	7 presidential candidates: backgrounds, positions, polling, electoral strategies	~6,500
03-trends.md	10 socioeconomic forces shaping Portugal: housing, brain drain, aging, digitalization	~5,800
04-immigration.md	Immigrant communities, integration patterns, voting rights, political attitudes	~5,200
05-regional.md	Interior/litoral divide, island territories, diaspora dynamics	~5,200
06-chega-analysis.md	Far-right voter psychology, Chega's rise, comparative European context	~5,100
08-policy-precedents.md	International policy comparisons: Hungary, Italy, Vienna, Estonia, Ireland, Spain	~6,700

Total: ~38,000 words of research

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Methodological Frameworks

This research integrates established academic frameworks:

Framework	Source	Application
Causal Layered Analysis	Inayatullah, 1998	Deep motivation analysis
Three Horizons	Sharpe et al., 2016	Transition scenario structure
Schwartz Human Values	Schwartz, 1992	Value profile mapping
Lakoff's Moral Politics	Lakoff, 1996	Voter psychology frames
Experiential Futures	Stuart Candy	Narrative scenario design

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Data Sources

Research draws from:

• Official statistics: INE, Pordata, Eurostat, OECD
• Polling data: Eurosondagem, Aximage, CESOP (December 2024–January 2025)
• Academic literature: Peer-reviewed journals on Portuguese politics, immigration, futures studies
• Journalism: Portuguese media coverage (Público, Expresso, Observador, RTP)
• International comparisons: Policy outcomes from Hungary, Italy, Austria, Spain, Ireland, Estonia

All sources are cited inline with links where available.

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Limitations

This research is:

• Exploratory and generative, not predictive
• A synthesis of publicly available information
• Designed to support scenario development

This research is NOT:

• Original empirical research or survey data
• Representative quantitative analysis
• Neutral—it acknowledges author perspective

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Request for Feedback

We welcome critical review from researchers in:

• Political science (Portuguese politics, European populism)
• Futures studies (methodology, scenario validity)
• Demography (population data accuracy)
• Migration studies (immigrant community representation)

Feedback Questions

1. Are there factual errors or outdated data?
2. Are important perspectives or communities missing?
3. Is the methodological framing appropriate?
4. What additional sources should be consulted?

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Contact

[Add your preferred contact method for researcher feedback]

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License

This research is shared for academic review and civic engagement purposes.

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Last updated: January 2025