A possible future

What if Catarina Martins wins?

"The Democracy of Care"

Bloco de Esquerda (left)

Summary

A Catarina Martins presidency would be the most ideologically distinctive and potentially disruptive outcome. Her commitment to housing, democracy protection, and social justice would find presidential expression, but transformation would require legislative power she wouldn't have. The presidency would become platform for movement building and discourse shifting rather than policy implementation. Success would depend on whether voice without power can achieve change, and whether progressive mobilization can translate into eventual government.

The fundamental question: Can a president change Portugal through moral witness alone, or is power the only thing that matters?

3 stories

8 supporters

Election night

January 18, 2026 — The results are announced.

Catarina Martins

Three Horizons

How this future would unfold over time.

Starting Point

January 2026

How She Won (Improbable Path):

Center vote fragmented across multiple candidates
Youth turnout at historic highs
Housing crisis mobilized generation rent
Anti-Chega vote consolidates around her as only left option in second round
Activist networks delivered ground game
"Protect democracy" message resonated

Key Assets:

Moral clarity and consistency
Youth and activist base
Housing crisis credibility
International progressive network
Clear values and communication

Key Challenges:

AD government in power (opposite ideology)
Limited presidential tools for agenda
Markets and business skeptical
EU relations complex
Must govern, not just campaign

The Presidency

2026-2030

Phase 1: The Rupture (Months 1-6)

Most ideologically distinct presidency in Portuguese history:

Inaugural address: housing as human right, climate emergency, democracy protection
Receives international progressive leaders; snubs some conservative counterparts
Immediate conflict with AD government on priorities
Uses every presidential platform to advocate for left agenda
Vetoes legislation frequently; parliament overrides
Social movements feel empowered; business feels besieged

Government Dynamics: Open conflict. AD government dismisses presidential advocacy; Catarina uses every tool to obstruct and criticize. Constitutional tensions emerge.

Phase 2: Confrontation (Months 6-18)

The presidency becomes permanent campaign:

Weekly addresses on housing, healthcare, climate, inequality
Hosts civil society summits at Belém
Refers laws to Constitutional Court frequently
Refuses to promulgate some legislation (constitutional crisis?)
International criticism and support simultaneously
Domestic polarization intensifies

Constitutional Questions:

Does president have power to delay promulgation indefinitely?
Can president refuse to attend certain state functions?
What happens if president and PM in open conflict?

Phase 3: Finding Limits (Months 18-36)

Reality of presidential power constraints:

Most vetoes overridden
Constitutional Court rules against some positions
Government proceeds with agenda despite presidential opposition
Some supporters disappointed by limited results
But discourse has shifted; issues stay on agenda

Strategic Choices:

Escalation: Call dissolution, seek new elections, gamble on left victory
Institutionalization: Accept limits, focus on achievable wins, preserve influence
Parallel governance: Build alternative structures, civil society power

Phase 4: Redefining the Left (Months 36-48)

Catarina's presidency forces questions: