What if Luís Marques Mendes wins?

Phase 1: Institutional Restoration (Months 1-12)

The president emphasizes normalcy after turbulent campaign:

• Traditional inaugural ceremony and rhetoric
• Emphasizes constitutional role (not activist presidency)
• Works smoothly with AD government
• International relations maintained (no surprises)
• Conservative style: fewer public interventions than predecessors
• "Presidential dignity" as theme

Government Dynamics: Seamless cooperation with AD government. President supports government's agenda without controversy.

Phase 2: Managing Contradictions (Months 12-24)

The stability presidency faces pressures:

• AD government must address housing, healthcare (limited success)
• Chega attacks from opposition; demands more radical action
• Left criticizes continuity as complacency
• Youth emigration continues; frustration builds
• Marques Mendes defends government but problems persist

Key Question: Does AD maintain majority or require Chega support?

Scenario A: AD Maintains Majority

• President continues stable cooperation
• Moderate reforms proceed slowly
• Chega contained in opposition
• Status quo preserved

Scenario B: AD Needs Chega

• President faces dilemma: legitimate Chega role or instability
• If supports Chega arrangement: loses center/left support
• If refuses: government instability; possible dissolution
• Marques Mendes' "unite, not divide" tested

Phase 3: The Chega Question (Months 24-36)

The defining challenge of a Marques Mendes presidency:

• How to handle Chega if AD loses majority?
• Does "unity" include far-right?
• What are red lines?
• Can center-right maintain distance while governing?

Possible paths:

• Cordon sanitaire: Refuses any Chega arrangement; risks instability
• Limited cooperation: Policy-by-policy support; legitimizes Chega
• Coalition: Full partnership; transforms Portuguese politics
• Dissolution: New elections; uncertain outcome

Phase 4: Legacy Definition (Months 36-48)

End of term depends heavily on Chega question:

• If cordon sanitaire held: "Defended democratic norms"
• If Chega normalized: "Opened the door"
• If instability: "Couldn't manage transition"