What if João Cotrim Figueiredo wins?

Phase 1: The Liberal Platform (Months 1-12)

Liberal president uses platform for reform advocacy:

• Inaugural address: "Portugal must be prepared for the future"
• Emphasizes competitiveness, deregulation, digital transformation
• Strong on social liberalism (LGBTQ+ rights, secular state)
• International business promotion tours
• Invites Estonia, Ireland leaders to share reform experiences
• Creates "Presidential Reform Commission" advisory body

Government Dynamics: Natural overlap with AD on economics, but IL would push further than AD's coalition constraints allow. Friendly but pushing.

Phase 2: The Reform Agenda (Months 12-24)

Cotrim uses every presidential tool for reform advocacy:

• Regular "State of the Economy" addresses
• Hosts business and tech sector summits
• Advocates for tax reform, deregulation, labor flexibility
• Promotes brain drain reversal through competitiveness
• But also emphasizes: social liberalism, individual freedoms, secular values

Resistance Points:

• Left attacks "neoliberal" agenda
• Workers fear labor flexibility = precarity
• Social conservatives uncomfortable with social liberalism
• Interior feels overlooked by tech/urban focus

Phase 3: Finding Balance (Months 24-36)

The liberal project meets political reality:

• Some reforms adopted where AD government aligned
• But structural change requires more than presidential advocacy
• Brain drain continues despite rhetoric
• Housing crisis persists (market solutions slow)
• Must balance economic liberalism with social concerns

The Cotrim Paradox:

• Economically wants less government
• But presidentially wants active reform advocacy
• Markets celebrated; workers worried
• Social progressives like identity positions; dislike economics

Phase 4: Assessing Liberalism (Months 36-48)

End of term forces evaluation:

• Did competitiveness improve?
• Did brain drain reverse?
• Did reforms actually happen or just advocacy?
• Is Portugal "prepared for the future"?